Hollywood’s awards season just exploded into chaos. Minutes after The Conclave snatched the coveted Outstanding Performance by a Cast award at the 2025 SAG Awards, Oscar pundits began scrambling. Why? Because this surprise victory has suddenly thrown the Best Picture race into a frenzy—and frontrunner Anora might be in trouble.
Let’s break it down. The Screen Actors Guild Awards are the most reliable Oscars predictor for Best Picture. Why? Because actors make up the largest voting branch in the Academy. When a film wins SAG’s ensemble prize, it’s often a bulletproof sign it’ll dominate at the Oscars. Just ask CODA (2022) or Parasite (2020)—both rode SAG momentum straight to Best Picture glory.
But here’s the twist: Anora, director Sean Baker’s gritty, crowd-pleasing dark comedy about a sex worker entangled with a billionaire family, has been the undisputed awards heavyweight all season. It won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, dominated critics’ awards, and swept the Golden Globes. Meanwhile, The Conclave—a tense Vatican thriller about papal intrigue starring Oscar Isaac and Ruth Negga—was seen as a longshot, praised for its acting but dismissed as “too niche” for top Oscars.
Until now.
The SAG Awards proved The Conclave isn’t just an acting powerhouse—it’s a unified, passionate favorite among actors. Isaac’s fiery acceptance speech (“This is for every actor who’s ever been told their story doesn’t matter!”) went viral, and insiders say the film’s themes of secrecy and betrayal are resonating deeply in Hollywood. “Actors see themselves in this story—fighting for power in a cutthroat system,” one anonymous SAG voter revealed. “Anora is brilliant, but Conclave feels personal.”
So, does this mean Anora is doomed? Not so fast. While SAG’s ensemble award is a huge Oscar clue, it’s not foolproof. La La Land (2017) and 1917 (2020) both lost SAG’s cast prize but still won Best Picture at the Oscars. Plus, Anora still leads in key categories like Best Director and Original Screenplay. However, its lack of a SAG nomination for its cast (due to its smaller, less starry ensemble) is a glaring weakness.
“The Oscars love a narrative, and right now, The Conclave has momentum,” says awards analyst Lydia Greene. “If the Academy’s actors rally behind it like SAG did, we could see a historic upset. But Anora has the international support and the critics. It’s a nail-biter.”
One thing’s clear: The Oscars just got a lot more interesting. Will Anora recover, or is The Conclave about to pull off the ultimate awards heist? Grab your popcorn—this showdown is just getting started.
Think you know who’ll win? Drop your predictions in the comments!